The Medium is the Massage
Project: The Total Library

Marshall McLuhan has been mentioned in passing in various comments here on spacecollective, hence why his name had ended up scribbled on my 'to read' list. So yesterday during a routine trawl of local second hand bookstores I happened to turn up a decent copy of 'The Medium is the Massage'.

It came as a pleasant surprise that the book is co-authored by a graphic designer (Quentin Fiore), and as such has undergone a decent graphic treatment, combining modernist typography with collage and various illustrations. Having just looked up the wikipedia entry on the book, it turns out that the text is a condensed, visual treatment of McLuhans 'Understanding Media', so if you prefer 180 pages of which half pictures to a 400 page thesis, this is probably a good introduction to McLuhans ideas.

The book predates computer networking on any scale, simply lumping new forms of communication under 'electronic technology', but is quite accurate in its forecast of the means in which the ever increasing speed and volume of communication would influence our environment and the individuals relationship to it and each other.

Some key quotes (for me, arguably not for the message of the book):

"There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening"

"All media are extensions of some human faculty - psychic or physical"

"Print technology created the public. Electronic technology created the mass."

I find this quote interesting because many consider us now to be well on our way in the age of 'Information technology', as the next step surpassing electronic technology. The book describes the public as consisting 'separate individuals walking around with separate, fixed points of view', the mass is not defined, but I would say something to the extent of, 'a large group of individuals, sitting on couches being spoon-fed a point of view'.
So what has information technology now brought us? I'd like to hope it will turn out to be something along the lines of Wildcats collex, in which loosely linked networked individuals exchange points of view in an ever expanding upward spiral of knowledge. The thing of course being that the technology lends itself equally well to an ever expanding, outward spiraling network of captioned cat pictures, so I'm not sure where that leaves us in terms of describing this new social form.

Oh am I rambling? Another quote:

"Art is anything you can get away with."

Just thought I'd throw that one in there, cause some people get away with some bull shit. (So do I at times, so it's ok I guess)

All up I think McLuhan understood media too well for his time. The possibilities he seems to have seen were never really realized in the 'electronic' age, that the issues he foresaw and discusses have only fully come to fruition over the last 10 years with the popular acceptance of the internet and the mass exploration of its possibilities.

This 'review' of mine doesn't do the book that much justice, but you should be reading it yourself really anyway. I recommend it highly, as it is still current and is bound set off thoughts at angles you may not have previously considered. (Unless of course you happen to be writing your thesis on this kind of thing...)

In closing the quote from the final page of the book:

"It is the business of the future to be dangerous"
-A.N. Whitehead

Wed, Aug 6, 2008  Permanent link

Sent to project: The Total Library

The Hyperwords Project

"Hyperlinks are amazing.
They let you follow any path..
..any path anyone has ever made.
But what about your intuition, your hunches?
What about all the other words,
the words that are not hyperlinks?

These other words are hyperwords...

I've had the hyperwords plugin installed for a while now and thought it deserved a mention here.
Basically it turns the entire web into hypertext. I've found myself using it mostly for the inline translation & reference features, but as it's highly customisable I doubt that I've explored all the possibilities.



Once you get used to it you'll wonder why you haven't had something like this for ages already. It adds a certain level of contextual depth & immediacy to browsing that simply wasn't available previously. The difference is kind of similar to the transition when tabbed browsing came about & you no longer had to bother with 17 different browser windows on screen.

In the words of the project founder:

My aim is to improve how networked computers help us learn, think and communicate. I assert that we don't interface with computers - we interface with information - and people - increasingly through the mediated information environments of networked computers. I feel that this connection - this flow - between people - information, and tools can benefit from becoming more liquid.

Frode Hegland - http://www.liquidinformation.org/

Assuming you're using firefox (sorry safari nerds), you can install the plugin from here:
http://www.hyperwords.net/

Thu, Jun 19, 2008  Permanent link

Predictions & Possibilities - Data Repository.

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22/03/08
This post will be used as a repository for quotes, notes and interesting articles I come across while gathering information on future prediction. It's very sparse now but I'll keep editing and adding to it over time, and hopefully start building a structure from which a cohesive narrative may or may not eventuate.
Normally this would happen in private mode, but I haven't even read half of this stuff yet and I don't really see the point in sitting on it while it could be inspiring other excellent articles and I'm busy slacking off. Do feel free to contribute.

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"As we explore these possibilities we must remember that they are just that - not predictions or prophecies."

Gerard K O'Neill - The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space

All text between the dotted lines lifted directly from http://cscs.umich.edu/~crshalizi/future.html
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Daedalus, or, Science and the Future by J. B. S. Haldane.
Icarus, or, the Future of Science by Bertrand Russell.

These books were written in 1923. Haldane, a distinguished biochemist and evolutionist, originally wrote Daedalus as a lecture to a Cambridge club known as the ``Heretics'', and later expanded it for publication. Icarus was the response evoked from Bertrand Russell, one of the greatest philosophers of the century. As John Brunner pointed out in an article in the New Scientist in 1993, these two books, together with the physicist J. D. Bernal's The World, the Flesh and the Devil, inspired two generations of science fiction writers, including Mr. Brunner's own Stand on Zanzibar. It is easy to see why: despite the passing of three generations, the futures they suggest remain vivid and plausible; in some aspects, arguably, actual. It is a remarkable and somewhat disquieting achievement.
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Don Davis' thoughts on human colonization of space. Contains interesting breakdown of why it hasn't happened & what needs to happen.
http://www.donaldedavis.com/2007NEW/SPACEMIGRATION.html
The essay section on his site contains a lot of interesting articles on future prediction, history, art and space. http://www.donaldedavis.com/2005%20new/FUTURE.html


Some rant by Bruce Sterling that kicked off 'Veridian Design'. No idea what that exactly is yet, but he goes on about predicting the future a bit. Contains comparison of 100 years ago to now:
http://www.viridiandesign.org/viridiandesign.htm
*Ugh, another movement. Not that interesting. This quote is pretty good though:

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

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24/03/08

History of future prediction
- Prophecy (self fulfilling?)
- Science
- Role of Science Fiction

Modes of future prediction
- Calculation (dig up reference materials from Ray Kurzweils TED talk)
- Speculation
— The future as used to discuss the present
— Corporate futurology

Failed future predictions
- Reasons for failure
— Cultural inertia
— Redundancy
— 'Black Swans'
— Overzelous estimations of adoption rates
— Weak scientific basis - far fetchedness
— Level of detail
— Failure to fully appreciate others level of stupidity
— Excellent appreciation of others level of stupidity
— Politics



Prediction methodologies according to wikibooks 'future' book:
http://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Future/Prediction_Methods
Further content of the wikibook looks a bit weak.

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26/03/08

What interests me most are predictions that have passed their 'will happen by' date, that is predictions that are now completely a part of history, and as such can be seen to have eventuated or have failed (to varying degrees).
The reasons for failure are also interesting in varying degrees, most are quite easily explicable, the predictions were either based on bad science or their related technologies are still being developed and it is only a matter of time. One subset of failed prediction interests me in particular, that is predictions of futures that have technologically been within our reach, but as of yet have not eventuated.

So the ones that interest (annoy?) me most - housing / facilities / wealth distribution / freaking space settlement. Less interesting are the flying cars, jetpacks, pill dinners etc.
Also cool but far less interesting in terms of 'failed' predictions as they seem to be coming along nicely - robots / cybernetics / biological enhancement / communications.
The singularity has its own category.

Maybe it's the re-application of the reasons for failure to current developments & predictions which is actually most interesting.


Another interesting angle would be investigation of predictions made as the industrial age came underway compared to the early predictions of the 'information' age, and an analysis of the waves of it's major events with as goal to determine if our current age is behaving on similar terms, and if so possibly pinpoint our current position in that development creating a point from which to extrapolate the nature of upcoming events.
This may of course be completely pointless, as looking hard enough will always turn up parallels and the mind would be quick to imagine a stronger correlation than is in fact the case.


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30/03/08

List of cognitive biases

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25/04/08

The X2 project
Collaborative project by the IFTF focusing on forecasting the effects of upcoming developments in science & technology.

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15/05/08

"The labours of men of genius, however erroneously directed, scracely ever fail in turning to the solid advantage of mankind."

M. Waldman - Mary Shelly's Frankenstein, Chapter 3

Sat, Mar 22, 2008  Permanent link
Categories: future, predictions, possibilities

The Buckminster Fuller Reader
Project: The Total Library

If you haven't read any Buckminster Fuller, you need to get on it. I don't think you necessarily need to get your hands on this book in particular, although it does provide a good cross-section of his ideas. It would be a good idea if you're not familiar with him to sample a compilation of his writings, as the topics he attacks are quite broad, and any single paper or specialized book may give you a narrow view of his scope.

His writing can be long-winded, complicated and tedious, but that comes with the territory as the concepts he has articulated during his lifetime are nothing short of world changing. It will take quite a bit of effort to get your head around what's going on at times but it's worth it.

Apparently known mostly in architectural circles, Buckminster Fullers concept of 'comprehensive anticipatory design science' as aided through the exercise of 'total thinking' really should be spread to anyone who cares about our future as a species. The material discussed in this particular book includes but is not limited to;

• The industrial equation, the tenets of its currently flawed implementation, and a direction for its optimal implementation. Primarily shifting the focus of industry from weaponry to 'livingry' as mans highest developed capability, providing an environment conducive to an enlightened world view in which advancement is accepted as inevitable.


• Educational reform, the changes in thought processes that will need to be spread as common knowledge in order to enable to collectively envision our new direction.


• Historical accounts, explanations of key developments in 20th century history that provide important insights as to how we got into the mess we're in now.


• New systems of wealth, based on dynamic redirection of energy and knowledge, as opposed to the traditional stockpiling of static goods or a system underwritten by debt.

All in all, what is proposed is a system for creating "An Energy Borne Commonwealth of Humanity". A way to break out of the 'them or us till death' mentality that currently still controls the motives of most of the earths inhabitants, a mindset that can be made history through education and technological reform applied through comprehensive design.

Buckminster Fuller understood the problems caused by increasing speeds of communication and how traditional political and social structures (in particular the democratic process) were inadequately tooled to deal with this reality. While his ideas will need some polishing in order to be applied in our age, they are nonetheless as relevant now as they were at the time of their inception.

Here are a few quotes from sections I highlighted while reading, which while weakened by being removed from their original content, and completely inadequate in illustrating his eloquence & vocabulary will hopefully still convey a taste of what more his work holds.

"I am not a thing — a noun. I seem to be a verb, an evolutionary process — an integral function of the universe."

"Man creates naught. If he comprehends in principle, he rearranges locally in universe by realization of the interactions of priciples."

"The most successful exploiters of the invention man, to date, are those who have bet on the supremacy of his ignorance and have, therefore, stressed the negative probabilities."

"Science is obsucure only to cultivated momentum of ignorance."

"It is indeed a comprehensive educational problem."

Mon, Mar 17, 2008  Permanent link

Sent to project: The Total Library

Fuck 'exploring inner space'.

That's right, I said it.

I have no problem with the investigation of self for the betterment of self, but generally all 'exploring inner space' means is you are just being useless, or producing useless artifacts. What's the real world use of your 'exploration'? How is it improving you or driving the advancement of mankind? It seems to me that general uselessness under the guise of 'exploring inner space' is one of the serious factors impeding the progress of individuals that actually enjoy the privilege of a position in which you have that kind of free time on your hands, as for a large percentage of the world survival simply takes up most of their day.

At a certain point in time (not that long ago in the scale of things), this was the case for all men. That changed with industrialization and the general increase in wealth it brought about, but at some point men became content with their condition and apathetic to its further improvement. Why?

It appears that man was it's peak both physically and mentally, somewhere in the late 50's / early 60's. I wasn't around back then obviously (I think we would benefit from the input of people who were), but it seems to me that the period of buildup after the great depression / formative avant-garde movements, had a lot more going for it as far as mental advancement in the form of education is concerned. Just look at school tests, written correspondence and the level of craft in design and manufacturing back then. The human potential was at a much higher level than in our current world of computer aided numbskull shell beings.

Education and learning, the acquisition of new knowledge and skills, seems to have been something practiced by the layman for leisure purposes or the betterment of self much more extensively during that period. Strong technological development at the time drove an inspired vision of an enlightened new industry that could reform the world, and people were excited to be a part of that. We have had the technology and industrial capability for all of the worlds population to benefit from it's resources and focus simply on improving the self for benefit of ones environment since shortly after WWII, but it still hasn't happened.

Something prevented that world from coming about. Somehow everyone lost interest. It would seem that the cultural revolution that was imminent back then has somehow been usurped by a bunch of stinking hippies. Or a few really smart guys protecting their preferred status quo through the manipulation of a hopeful, eager, but unfortunately naive and easily influenced generation growing up in a world that had known only advancement and took for granted the comforts and privileges it had brought about.

So instead of a society which focuses on maximizing the potential of the individual for the greater good of humanity as a whole, we now seem to be stuck with a massive population of ignorant, greedy assholes, either hellbent on defending scientifically deprecated religious views, or simply content to just watch porn, take drugs and play videogames, while a bunch of corrupt rulers and their generally oblivious lackies do their best to keep it that way.
Hardly anyone takes the trouble to learn new skills (anything useful exclusively to a virtual world doesn't count. It's not a new skill), and precious few people bother to further their education more than is necessary to get a paycheck, or a subsequent payrise. Useless abstract pastimes now fill most leisure time.

Think about it. It's really neat if you have been able to visualize the endless continuum of space-time after staring at a generative fractal visualization for too long while on mushrooms, and then went on to blog a rad doodle and a poem about it, but how is that helping? Did you just advance mankinds understanding of the universe or did you just do something fucking pointless?
When was the last time you learned a real new skill or gained knowledge that truly assisted you in leading a more gratifying existence, enabling you to not only better understand yourself, but perhaps also improving your influence on the condition of others?

While the title of this piece may not entirely fit its conclusion, at least you read it.
I've made a number a statements that can be probably be dis-proven, most definitely argued.
That's the point.

/rant.


Disclaimer: I know I'm pretty much just as useless as the next guy. At least it bothers me, and I have the intention of doing something about it.

PS: This post was brought to you by a general frustration with the shit sorry state of mankind, and annoyance at the number of posts on spacecollective consisting of just pictures. FFS. My blog feeds show me 1000's of pictures every day already. It better be a damn good picture, or you should have something really interesting to say about it. Think before posting and add some value dammit, we're supposed to be exchanging ideas and information here. Even kindergarten has show and tell. Not just show.

/rant. again.

Tue, Mar 11, 2008  Permanent link

The value of failed future predictions.

Predictions of future events have been around for as long as history has cared to document, and probably a lot longer. Unsurprisingly, most predictions made in any detail concerning any significant amount of time turn out to be wrong. This is simply bound to be true by the nature of the universe as we perceive it, as out of all the uncountable futures imaginable, only one will ever come to pass.

In order for this discussion to be useful it will be necessary to define a certain scope. Guesswork such as picking lotto numbers, and anything bound by the laws of physics and its consequences will immediately fall outside of this, as will mythical prophecy, statistical/operational forecasting and fashion life-cycles. What I will be concerning myself with here will primarily concentrate on the predictions of science fiction during the last two centuries. The failed predictions that have now given rise to the term paleo-futurism, and have left a pool of bitter cynics in their wake, asking 'Where is my jet-pack?', and bemoaning the loss of dreams never realized. (Yes, that includes me.)

Historically (by which I mean from about 1880 to 1980) the worth of these predictions has been their value as ideas, the stock and trade of science fiction. The world as we currently know it has been shaped by these ideas, and we enjoy a lifestyle made possible by technologies that may never have been developed had the scientific minds at their base not been inspired by the speculation of others. Writers such as Verne and Clarke are responsible for a great deal of todays tools and toys, however while both have had good hits, in most details they have been proven wrong. What is important though is that their avenues of thought were explored by others, and while proving them wrong, they have driven further development and lead to new avenues of exploration that now carve out our path into the future.

Now though, the failures are starting to stack up. We've reached the 21st century and shit just isn't going down the way we were told it would be. Our space programs are rubbish (yes they are, they suck.), we still predominantly use fossil fuels, our cars are stuck on the ground, machines don't have decent human language capabilities, I still have to lace my sneakers and I could go on like this for a while. We're supposed to be living in the age of science fiction, so how do we now benefit from all those futures that never came to fruition?

Firstly I believe there is an enormous historical and anthropological value. It should be a well known fact that science fiction authors use the future mode to discuss the realities and developments of their current day, and set forth extrapolations on those scenarios. It is therefore of the utmost importance to not just take their writings at face value, but to view them within the context of the time of writing, and to any extent possible the authors' circumstances at the time. This then presents us with the opportunity to utilize the gift of hindsight, and to look back along the paths of those extrapolations to the point of their genesis, where we may find fascinating insights into the minds of some of the greatest forward thinkers of the previous two centuries, showing their perceptions, passions and concerns, and as such writing a rich alternative history of the birth of our modern age.

Secondly these 'failures' should serve to inform our opinions on the shape of things to come. The dose of cynicism we have now been dealt should serve us well in maintaining a cautious stance on our progress, especially now the stakes are becoming so high. Recent history has shown that areas of technology undergoing rapid growth can stagnate in their development, their predicted grandeur not coming to pass. It is important for us to reflect on the reasons for their stalling, and to consider this in relation to our own circumstances as we go forward.

Lastly is an element often lost in the clouds of disappointment, which is probably the most important, and that is sheer optimism. Many of these predictions have been made overeagerly out of a belief in the remarkable capabilities and spirit of mankind. Even bleak post-apocalyptic futures carry an element of optimism in the fact that there even is a future after whatever events have destroyed their worlds. The feeling that has driven men to predict great things for us all must be kept alive, for without it little will happen to benefit us as a race. No matter exactly how they are to pan out, radical changes are going to take place, and if we are to take any role in shaping these events it should be with the view that they may serve to secure our future as a force of life and knowledge in the universe.

Fri, Jan 18, 2008  Permanent link

A new human taxonomy.

Bear with me as I ramble through some general thoughts on the upcoming development of us humans...

The topic of this project is an interesting one, as it's something we'll probably actually have to deal with within our lifetimes. Something bothers me about the project description from the first line though.

What will happen when for the first time in ages different human species will inhabit the earth at the same time?

While it's likely that eventually the split of new species will occur, I don't think it's probable that this will occur to the level of a Sterlingesque Shaper/Mechanist society in the short- to mid term, as a separation of multiple generations in which there is little to no cultural exchange would be necessary to create such a rift. Basically we would probably have to be off-planet. Our coming progression through varying levels of technological sophistication, various combinations of technologies and cultural inertia are rather more likely to produce a myriad of hybrid specimens and possibly several new breeds before distinct species can be distinguished.

The first development, which is currently underway, is the rise of ubiquitous computing. The way we interact with our devices is already changing the way we think, externalizing memory and altering the processing of multiple flows of information. A lot of people, (of which I see myself being one), will choose to remain fully human but not shy away from technology, simply interfacing with external peripheral devices may be all the augmentation they ever use. I can imagine a creative cocktail of sub-vocal voice recognition, eye tracking, exoskeletal prosthesis, retinal projection & haptic sensors could deliver a fairly sophisticated level of augmentation without the use of any invasive modifications, which I myself at this point would only consider for medical reasons.

But who is to say what will be considered invasive in 20 years?
I'll probably have kids coming home with unlicensed wetware before I ever get any, but hopefully I'll have raised them well enough to make intelligent decisions about their tech, and if they know what they're doing it's probably preferable to them camping out in front of the Apple Clinic to get hooked into the iMind or whatever. I do believe it should be the right of the individual to decide on their own modifications.

The imminent rise of biotechnology will be where things really start to get interesting, when genes can be worked on with the same level of resources currently necessary to develop hardware gadgets there is no end to the number of permutations upon mutations that may be produced. As mentioned in the murmurs it will be interesting to see how this takes off commercially, and what will happen to early adopters, as there's certain potential for nasty situations if you're stuck with some buggy biotech.
(You may notice I'm also in the camp that believes that this development will be commercially driven, as opposed to out of some benevolent re-distribution of resources due to the collective enlightenment of mankind. Not holding my breath for that one.)

Anyway.

This brings me to the point of this whole thing.
In the upcoming early stages of human augmentation there will not be an immediate split into multiple species, but a progression upwards through the taxonomic ranks. Hardware modifications aren't hereditary, so the children of heavily augmented individuals would remain human. Should a faction break off that consistently applies the same level of technological modification to all its offspring, this could still only qualify as a hybrid.

The extent to which bio-technological modifications turn out to be hereditary will have a major effect, as this will lead to the rise of numerous new hybrids which through selection of the most efficient/convenient/fashionable mods could lead to the rise of new breeds, however there may be no reason that these breeds cannot still bear mixed offspring, therefore still not making them classifiable as different species.

And what would withhold the biologically augmented from accepting additional hardware modification as well, exponentially multiplying the number of variations available?
Hence my view that in the short to midterm a definite split of species is not likely to occur, more likely we will get used to a world in which human capabilities and specialties differ in a far greater range than we are currently used to, with uncountable hybrid forms of human present.

In the longer term who is to say what could happen. A singularity or the rise of a new mind may cause us to redefine our entire existence. The distances and timeframes of interstellar travel and off-world habitats would surely give rise to yet even more variations on our form, and provide the seclusion necessary for various other rounds of specialist evolution, truly creating new races. I think that until the time we really manage to get off this planet though, we'll likely have to see each other as a single race, and it would be useful for a system to be devised with which our newfound genetic and technological diversity could be classified.

Thu, Dec 20, 2007  Permanent link

#NGS001

Tired of the transient nature of digital artifacts, I recently decided to create something manually again for a change. The result was this collage, created from a 1966 issue of National Geographic.
While it started with no real goal in mind, it became quite a narrative image, depicting human development through a clash of cultures and the consequential technological development.

If you want you can grab the poster as a hi-res A3 .pdf from http://www.sjef.nu

Wed, Dec 12, 2007  Permanent link